How To Make Smart Sports Bets

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Whether you’re gambling on football, baseball, UFC, or any other sport, every sports bettor should follow a set of basic rules to bet smart and win money. Even if you are new to sports betting, establishing a consistent system early could lead to success in the outset of your gambling career.

On any given day, you’ll find hundreds of betting lines across multiple sports. With so much variety, it’s easy to get sucked into making multiple bets on different teams. This is fine if you’re a casual bettor who has a big bankroll. But it doesn’t give you a true chance to learn everything you need to make an informed bet. DOC’S SPORTS HORSE RACING is back on Saturday with an $84 Recommended Bet from the 2021 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct (post time is 5:00 p.m. We hit the trifecta in the 2020 Breeders.

Gambling can be a rewarding and profitable challenge if you know how to approach the industry. But, If you find yourself losing more than you’re winning, consider following the tips below.

  • For those new to gambling, or even veterans who are reevaluating your approach to betting, here are seven tips to help you make smarter sports bets. 1 – Stick to One Sport If you find yourself on a losing streak or feel exhausted while scouting and placing bets, you might be overextending yourself.
  • Set aside a certain amount of money that you can use for your bankroll for the week, the month, or the season. A general sports betting strategy for money management is to only make bets with 1%-5% of your bankroll. For example, if your bankroll for the NFL season was $1,000 you would be making $10-$50 bets on each NFL game you wanted to bet on.
  • Create accounts with a few sportsbooks. In order to place bets, you have to have an account with at least one sportsbook, though it’s ideal to have at least three, because then you can compare offerings and place smarter bets. Some sportsbooks also offer signup bonuses, so be sure to shop around.

For those new to gambling, or even veterans who are reevaluating your approach to betting, here are seven tips to help you make smarter sports bets.

1 – Stick to One Sport

If you find yourself on a losing streak or feel exhausted while scouting and placing bets, you might be overextending yourself. High volume betting is an excellent method for experienced gamblers who have an established system that works for them. If you’re somewhat new to betting or consistently lose, I recommend finding one sport to bet on and stick to it.

The only way to win consistently is to find a system that works. By sticking to one sport for a stretch, not only will you begin to understand the subtle peculiarities of the sport, but you’ll also develop a more disciplined approach to betting.

Whichever sport you pick is up to you; it truly makes no difference as long as you devote the time and energy to understand better how to win money on the sport. In the sports gambling world, being a jack of all trades and master of none might sound more enjoyable in theory, but stretching your sports acumen too thin can lead to consistent losses and a depleted bankroll.

2 ‒ Use Flat Betting

When I first started gambling on sports years ago, I made every textbook mistake out there. My biggest mistake was habitually developing tunnel vision on one particular bet and unloading several units, convincing myself it was a winner. Rarely do those large bets go my way.

Gamblers are prone to find a line that is too tantalizing to pass on and delude themselves into thinking they can outsmart the book. When this happens, you can sustain significant losses and take yourself out of action more often than not. Instead of making a few large bets, you should be mindful of your bankroll and make several bets of equal value with a smaller amount on the line.

This practice, known as flat betting, is a practice that eliminates the potential of suffering significant losses and forces you to maintain a consistent approach to gambling. Even if some of these smaller bets don’t win, you can bounce back and turn to some of the other bets you place to recoup losses.

3 ‒ Make Small Bets to Start

On the same line of thinking, placing smaller wagers is a great way to familiarize yourself with a particular sport. The only way to learn how to beat the book and win money is to find a successful strategy. This strategy can only be developed if you are consistently betting.

Smaller bets aren’t as appealing as one big bet that could potentially double your bankroll. But if a large bet loses and you blow past your bankroll, you take yourself out of the game and stunt any progress until you can reload your roll.

The amount you decide on depends on personal preference, but in my experience, betting 1% to 2% of your bankroll per bet works for me. So, if your bankroll is $750, each bet should be somewhere between $7.50 to $15. Once again, the amount is up to you, but never bet an amount you’re not comfortable losing.

4 ‒ Take It Seriously

At the beginning of any sports gambler’s career, the question of purpose needs to be asked. You need to figure out whether this is a side hobby to blow off steam, or if you’re sports betting to make money. If you fall into the latter category, you need to think of yourself as a small business.

Profitable gambling results from discipline, money management, and the development of a useful strategy. This strategy isn’t something you will happen upon by chance. Instead, it will come after hours of research and analysis about the ins and outs of whichever sport you decide to gamble on.

The most important factor of a small business is profit, and you won’t achieve profits if your books aren’t consistent. Make sure to utilize a bankroll: a daily, weekly, or monthly budget, so you don’t jeopardize your financial security. This point cannot be overvalued. Virtually every successful gambler sets a limit and doesn’t exceed that amount.

5 ‒ Don’t Bet Like a Sports Fan

When you’re deciding which sport or which team to bet on, remind yourself why you’re gambling in the first place. If you engage in sports betting to add some excitement and entertainment value to the games you watch, that’s perfectly fine. But if you’re betting to win money, you need to approach lines like a sports gambler, not a sports fan.

This concept manifests itself in many forms, most prevalently in the form of the hometown bias bettor. Betting on your favorite teams and favorite players might make sense to you. I mean, who knows your team better than you, right? When you bet like a sports fan, you open yourself up to potentially making emotionally charged decisions, rather than adequately vetted.

I rarely, if ever, bet for or against my favorite team. Not only do I recognize that I’m incapable of removing bias from the situation, betting on my team can ruin the experience of watching games. Don’t let yourself believe that your diehard fanhood will translate to gambling wins.

6 ‒ Shop for the Best Line

Unless you have the luxury of knowing a bookie, most sites and sportsbooks have built-in “vigs” or advantages in the lines they set. The house always wins, even if they lose, they’re taking a small percentage of your winnings as a standard fee. Because of this, sports gamblers are still at a disadvantage.

To try to lessen this advantage, you should make sure you’re getting the best value on your bets. Lines can vary between sportsbooks and websites, so you have the opportunity to find the best line and maximize profitability. Shopping for lines can be tedious, and you might think a small difference between lines makes no difference.

However, if a book is giving you an extra point on a particular bet, that could be the difference between a win and a loss. Several well-reviewed sports websites all around the internet offer the potential of added value. Before you place a wager, make sure you’re finding the best line and best odds.

7 ‒ Research and Bet Sober

There are few things better than taking in a football game on Sunday with a cold drink in your hand: sports and drinking are a classic combination. Once again, gambling on sports and watching sports are two separate activities, and they should be approached as such. The best sports handicappers will tell you that a bet made under the influence can be a dangerous thing.

All the research and analysis you engage in should be conducted with a clear mind to make sure your decisions aren’t impaired. Sports gambling, like any other form of gambling, is challenging enough as it is. There’s no need to make it more complicated.

If you’ve placed your final bets for the day and want to reward yourself with a drink, make sure you don’t go down the rabbit hole of drunkenly chasing potential losses. This is where inexperienced gamblers routinely find trouble. To win serious money, you need to think of gambling as a second job. You don’t drink at your day job, so consider setting that standard for your sports gambling career.

Conclusion

Sports gambling is a serious business, and as a part of the betting world, you should take yourself seriously. Even if you consider gambling a hobby, it’s always more fun to win than it is to lose. New gamblers need to make sure to start on the right foot and themselves to a high standard.

Profit may be hard to come by in the early stages, but if you follow these tips, you will put yourself in a position to succeed. Make sure to start with smaller wagers on one sport, remove emotional attachments to particular teams and players, manage your money, and treat gambling like a small business. Following these tips will give you a strong base to learn about the industry and figure out the best strategy for you.

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Betting on the NFL isn’t necessarily easy, but making smarter bets is always possible for those motivated to learn a bit of new strategy.

Try these nine thoughtful tips when wagering at online football betting sites and watch your bankroll grow.

1. Bet With Your Head, Not Your Heart

It may sound obvious, but avoiding emotion when wagering remains a challenge for many bettors. We all have our personal biases. Whether it’s a favorite team or one we despise, putting aside these preferences isn’t easy.

But here’s the thing: becoming more objective towards NFL betting online is literally the easiest way to make smarter bets. It doesn’t require a detailed strategy on mathematical analysis, it just requires common sense.

Cheering on your favorite team (at least) 16 times per year is a lot of fun, but losing money in the process is not. To become a smarter bettor, be aware of your biases and try to avoid decisions based solely on favoritism.

2. Pay Attention to Where the Game Is Played

Home-field advantage matters, and it matters more at certain stadiums. For example, the New England Patriots, went 42-6 straight-up (32-14-2 ATS) at home from 2014-2018. The Seahawks also perform exceptionally well in Seattle: they are 92-31 at home since 2003.

But they’re not the only two teams with such an advantage. Do your research by comparing each team’s home vs. away record when handicapping for home team advantage.

West Coast teams traveling to the Eastern Time Zone tend to have less difficulty overcoming the time change, but East Coast teams are at an inherent disadvantage when forced to play on the Pacific Coast, three hours later than they’re used to.

There are also teams who don’t travel well. From 2014-2018 (a five-season span), the San Francisco 49ers were a terrible 9-31 on the road, third-worst in the league. They weren’t much better against the spread, going 16-22-2 (fourth-worst in the NFL). The Texans also struggled to cover the spread on the road in 2016, posting a 2-6 record ATS.

Knowing where and when the teams played the previous week is also an important factor to consider. Some teams suffer from real disadvantages. West Coast teams traveling to the Eastern Time Zone tend to have less difficulty overcoming the time change, but East Coast teams are at an inherent disadvantage when forced to play on the Pacific Coast, three hours later than they’re used to.

Lastly, certain dome (indoor) teams can struggle to perform outdoors. For example, Drew Brees’ passer rating drops from 102.5 in a dome to 90.3 when playing outdoors. And this is all extremely useful information for bettors.

3. Know the Individual Matchups

Football is often referred to as the ultimate team sport, but there are certain one-on-one matchups that can dramatically affect the outcome of a game.

For example, a weak offensive tackle should not be expected to perform well against the premier edge-rushers in the league. Pay attention to major skill discrepancies between players who will be going head-to-head.

Coaches are perhaps the most significant head-to-head matchups that bettors should consider. Every coach uses recurring strategies that fare very well against some opponents and flop against others. Coaches get to know each other’s approaches to the game, and some are better at responding to these strategic considerations.

How To Make Smart Sports Bets Against

A great example of this is Tom Coughlin and Bill Belichick. The Patriots have been dominant since Belichick has been steering the ship, but he was 2-5 when coaching against Coughlin following the 2018 season.

4. Know More than Just the Trends

When it comes to betting on NFL games, following the trends isn’t a bad idea — patterns sometimes provide valuable information. For example, from 2010 to 2018, the Bears went 12-5 ATS when coming off a bye week, while the 49ers, on the other hand, were just 5-11 ATS in that same time frame.

The sharpest bettors always look at the context behind the numbers when evaluating statistical trends.

Noticing that a team just scored 49 points the previous week doesn’t necessarily mean that their offense is firing on all cylinders. Go back and look at how all the points were scored. Maybe a defensive back fell down to allow a long touchdown pass. Perhaps the defense scored a couple of those touchdowns. Maybe they were just playing the Browns.

The sharpest bettors always look at the context behind the numbers.

5. Check the Injury Reports

As we mentioned, football is the ultimate team game, and small changes can throw off the entire unit. Make sure you know which players have missed practice during the week, what their status is for the upcoming game, and what role they play on the team.

Team injury reports can be a little vague, so it’s always a good idea to check the Twitter accounts of beat-writers for each team. Often, they will provide a little more detail.

6. Take Caution with Divisional Matchups

Teams that play each other twice per season get to know each other very well, and even bad teams tend to dig a little deeper when they are battling a division rival.

Looking to 2016, the Jacksonville Jaguars, Chicago Bears, and San Francisco 49ers were three of the bottom-four teams in the NFL, but they all posted a 4-2 record ATS within their respective divisions.

Even though one team may appear superior on paper, divisional matchups are often much closer than anticipated. This makes the great choices to bet on the NFL point spread, but they can be risky choices on the moneyline.

7. Don’t Fall in Love with Value

Betting the underdog on the moneyline can certainly pay off, but you need to consider why long odds are so long in the first place. Make sure you have very specific reasons and logic behind taking a +800 underdog on the moneyline, because you can be sure the sportsbook used reason and logic to set that moneyline in the first place.

We strongly recommend limiting parlays and teasers to 2-5 events when betting on the NFL.

You also need to be careful when constructing parlays and teasers. Don’t load them up with too many events. NFL teams are generally closely-matched compared to other sports, and it’s far too difficult to correctly predict the outcome of more than a handful of games. We strongly recommend limiting parlays and teasers to 2-5 events.

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How To Make Smart Sports Bets Odds

8. Monitor the Lines Throughout the Week

Monitoring the betting lines throughout the week is a big part of maximizing your chances. Some online books may provide more favorable NFL odds, and as the week progresses, you may find the odds change.

It’s important to keep in mind the influence of public perception here. Popular teams like the Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, and New England Patriots will always have loyal supporters betting with their hearts. They’re often referred to as public teams, and it’s very likely they’ll be more heavily favored than the statistics suggest they should be.

If you’re planning on betting against the public, wait around and let emotional bettors drive the odds in your favor. Conversely, if you’re planning to bet on a public team, jumping on an early line is likely the best decision.

9. Diversify Your NFL Bets

There is success to be had betting on the moneyline, the spread, and game totals. But to maximize your success, it’s crucial to know all the alternative bets you can make.

Many sportsbooks will allow you to bet on alternate spreads or buy and sell points. Instead of settling for a -3.5 spread that makes you a little uncomfortable, you can opt for a -2.5 spread with a more modest payout.

Enjoy the Action this NFL Season

The strategies above are great to keep in mind while wagering this football season, but they’re only a start. In the end, finding success is all about putting in the time and effort to research your pick and manage your bankroll effectively.

If you’re looking to for more football action than the NFL can provide, open up your Saturdays and take a look at our intro to betting on college football for more helpful tips and tricks.

How To Make Smart Sports Bets Online