Kentucky Derby 2019 Betting Tips
Kentucky Derby 2019 picks, betting tips, odds, up-to-the-minute wagering info on all 19 horses Bob Baffert has 3 chances to win Triple Crown race with Game Winner, Improbable and Roadster Updated. Bet on the 2019 Kentucky Derby here! Let’s take a look at a few Derby betting trends: The betting favorite has now won the race six years in a row. The previous high was four in a row from 1972 to 1975. The average win payout during this run is $8.90 for a $2 wager. The Best Way To Bet $100 At The 2019 Kentucky Derby Posted on May 2, 2019 by admin May 2, 2019 The Kentucky Derby 2018, won by Justify (center, white blaze, white silks). Expert Picks at the Kentucky Derby. The 2021 Kentucky Derby is the 147th renewal of The Greatest Two Minutes in Sports. Live odds, betting, horse bios, travel info, tickets, news, and updates from Churchill Downs Race Track.
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On any typical Saturday, I might hear it once or twice, but everything becomes magnified on the first Saturday in May.
'Who do you like?'
'What are you betting?'
'Who are you using?'
The questions I hear over and over again are understandable. The Kentucky Derby is the big one, after all.
It's the one race of the year when even the most casual observer tunes in. As a lifetime lover of racing, a turf writer and a handicapper, I am always more than happy to give my opinion...even to those I only hear from just before the first Saturday in May.
Actually, the Kentucky Derby is only part of the equation this week at Churchill Downs for handicappers. The big one is supported by numerous other prestigious races, including the Kentucky Oaks. As a bettor who likes to go for big scores, many of my plays this week will involve multiple races. I will also look to the trifecta as my go-to wager in the Kentucky Derby.
With another deep field set to enter the starting gate on Saturday, I see great value in this year's Derby, despite believing the top horses are for real. Of the seven horses I expect to be among the favorites, I will not be using two of them. I believe that both Maximum Security and Vekoma are both speed types who have benefitted from great race setups in their big prep wins. At the 10 furlongs of the Derby, I expect both to fade out of the top three.
This leaves Tacitus, Game Winner, Improbable, Roadster and Omaha Beach as my five horses to beat. I don't see too much to separate any of them and I will be using all five in my trifectas.
I will also be playing my top three longshots. Code of Honor, Win Win Win, and By My Standards are all horses I can easily see running big, and finishing well, at odds in the 20-1 range.
My first trifecta play will be a simple eight-horse box using all of them, of course, pending Tuesday's post position draw. A 50-cent wager will cost $168, and as long as the top choices don't run 1-2-3, the payoff will be worth much more.
I will also play another trifecta using my top picks at the value on top. This ticket will have Tacitus, Game Winner, Improbable and Code of Honor in the top spot; all eight of my main plays in second; and the same eight, plus longshots Spinoff, Country House, and Long Range Toddy will be on my ticket for third. This 50-cent bet will cost $126.
As mentioned, I will be investing plenty into multi-race wagers, including the Oaks-Turf Classic-Derby Pick 3, as well as the Pick 3, Pick 4 and Pick 5 leading into the Derby. All three can be made for a 50-cents base, so the opportunity to spread it around and include live longshots will be there.
In the Kentucky Oaks and the Turf Classic, Bellafina and Bricks and Mortar will be the heavy respective favorites. I will use both in my multi-race wagers, but I do not believe either is a sure thing. Champagne Anyone is a filly that has caught my eye, and Chocolate Kisses is my Oaks bomb.
Finally, back at a mile, Got Stormy in the Distaff Turf Mile is one horse that could really make my weekend. She will not be one of the favorites, and I think she is ready to run huge for trainer Mark Casse. I will be using her on all tickets in that Derby day race.
A couple of notes here: If any of my top Kentucky Derby picks draw the rail, I will likely alter this ticket. Look for post draw remarks within the comments section of this blog. Also, if the weather goes bad, as it did last year, I would also look to make some simple changes to the bet.
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Kentucky Derby 2019 Betting Tips Horse Racing
Timeform's expert US handicapper Mark Milligan previews the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on Saturday and picks out his best bet. Mark Milligan previews the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on Saturday evening and picks out his best bet.
This year’s ‘Run for the Roses’ appears to be as open a renewal as we’ve seen in recent times, and the waters were further muddied when ante-post favourite Omaha Beach became an eleventh-hour non-runner after suffering a trapped epiglottis.
As so often in American top-level contests, Bob Baffert seems to hold the key to the race, fielding no less than three runners: Game Winner, Improbable and Roadster, all of whom have strong claims on form. Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile victor Game Winner has yet to win a race in 2019, but he has hardly been disgraced in defeat, finishing a nose second to the aforementioned Omaha Beach in a division of the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn on his reappearance before being beaten just half a length by stable companion Roadster in the Santa Anita Derby last time. In both those races Game Winner suffered wide trips and his efforts can be upgraded as a consequence. He has plenty of experience and determination and is likely to give his running once again.
Game Winner continues his undefeated career as he scores in the G1 American Pharoah Stakes at Santa Anita Park for Trainer Bob Baffert, Owners Gary and Mary West with Jockey Joel Rosario aboard! pic.twitter.com/Ub1dBoUyUo
— TVG (@TVG) September 29, 2018Despite owning a win over Game Winner, Roadster may struggle to confirm that form at Churchill Downs. He had a better trip than the runner-up in the Santa Anita Derby and doesn’t seem to have as much stamina in his pedigree as his stablemate. It’s likely that Improbable, another Baffert trainee yet to post a win this year, will pose a bigger threat to Game Winner. Despite not being off the mark in 2019, Improbable has done little wrong in two starts, finishing a neck second to Long Range Toddy in the other division of the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn before finishing a length second to Omaha Beach in the Arkansas Derby at the same track last time.
Looking at the rest of the field, the superbly-bred Tacitus may be the one to serve it up to the Baffert battalions. A neck winner of a maiden at Aqueduct on just his second start in November, Tacitus posted an improved effort on his first three-year-old outing in the Tampa Bay Derby, and he bettered that performance in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct last time out. Tacitus did particularly well that day as he suffered interference heading into the first turn but managed to gather himself and come through to record a convincing win on just his fourth career start, despite still looking a little green in the latter stages. Justify proved last year that a Kentucky Derby could be won by a horse with limited experience, and it may well be that Tacitus possesses the most latent talent in this field. If he can overcome his relative lack of seasoning, he may well emerge as a big player.
Another with just four runs under his belt is the unbeaten Florida Derby winner Maximum Security. This horse has divided opinion on the run up to the race, with several ways of looking at his form. There is no doubt that strictly on ratings his Florida Derby effort is as good as anything in the field, but he got away with soft fractions on the front end, and that win may not be quite as good as it looks on the figures. He also got to dictate in his previous win over 7f and will now get a real acid test of his credentials.
Undefeated and now a player on the big stage! Maximum Security makes all under a superb @LuisSae17433683 to win the Florida Derby at @GulfstreamPark. Could this be horse number 16 to win this race and the @KentuckyDerby? pic.twitter.com/QRFHGHTUdv
— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) March 30, 2019Looking at some of the bigger-priced runners, By My Standards has the capacity to outrun his current odds of around 20/1. He did take four starts to finally get off the mark, but his latest win in the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds was achieved in a fair time and he looks to be coming to the boil at exactly the right moment. Those wanting an each-way interest in the race could do a lot worse than take a long look at this one. Vekoma is another at a fair price who has strong credentials, his convincing win in the Blue Grass at Keeneland last time being achieved while recording a strong TimeformUS speed figure. This colt has tactical speed but could end up going a stride too fast in a race that may well unfold at a hot tempo.
In summary, Bob Baffert appears to hold all the aces, and while it was very tempting to put up Game Winner, the feeling is we have yet to see the best of Tacitus, who has untapped potential and appears to be getting better and better. At around 9/1, he represents fair value and is taken to give veteran trainer Bill Mott a long-overdue first Kentucky Derby win.
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Kentucky Derby 2019 Betting Tips
Back Tacitusin the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs